The Black Swan

What's it about?

A Black Swan is an event which could not have been predicted, profoundly changes people's views and is often the cause of post-incident justification - "Well, of course that was bound to happen".

It takes its name from the discovery of Black Swans in Australia by Europeans who had not considered the possibility of swans being anything other than white.

The majority of events which significantly change the world are Black Swans, and by nature these cannot be predicted. This entertaining and thought provoking book describes why we can't predict important events and what we can do about that.

Best quote:

There is a good idea on nearly every page but to illustrate why we can't spot Black swans, here is one:

“Organized competitive fighting trains the athlete to focus on the game and, in order not to dissipate his concentration, to ignore the possibility of what is not specifically allowed by the rules, such as kicks to the groin, a surprise knife, et cetera. So those who win the gold medal might be precisely those who will be most vulnerable in real life.”

Most useful idea:

Taleb suggests not reading newspapers because analysis close to the time of an event rarely provides any real perspective – he claims not to have read any newspapers since he was 24!

Submitted by Andrew Waller